Monday, November 3, 2014


The motto of the IBD ( Investors' Daily) is worth considering these days. Several Sentiment Indicators are relatively high (complacent) but with what is traditionally the best three months of the year, and the U.S. stock market the best game in town, how much more rally can we see?
The U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is the highest it has been since...2007!

Last week was the best one in two years as many indices hit all time highs, including the Utilities - the Nasdaq is getting closer. Breadth is very positive, with the McClellan Oscillator hitting above my +50 (sell) number, but it is also the first trading day of the month. Traders' Almanac states the first day in the past outperformed all other days of the month combined.

Commercial traders of Gold are still shorting it bigtime, although I hope we saw a Selling Climax of Volume recently. Gartner sees it going lower.

Here are the numbers from last week - the monthly numbers at the bottom - Margin Interest and ETF flows have been reported as well.

Date> 10/31/2014 10/24/2014
Indices: DJIA  17390 16805
  NAZ  4630 4483
SPX  2018 1964
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 10.0/4.2 9.3/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.38 2.38
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14 16.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2440/813 2135/572
Weekly Net: 1627 1563
     Cumulative: 163414 161787
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 441/156 214/101
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 332/182 137/152
McClellan  Oscillator 84 68
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -5 -353
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 47 35.3
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 16.3 18.2
AAII  -Bull :wed. 49.4 49.7
Bear  21.1 22.5
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k (4k)/(6k) (1k)/(7k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (99k) (105k)
CEOinsider selling 29:1 12:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160:25 210:25
3-box rev Bullish%-  60 48
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 4.7B
MMF flows Change in $B 6.1B 12.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  464B SEPT.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1120/432/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.49% 0.39%

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