Monday, October 20, 2014


In Chess jargon the German word Zugzwang means "Forced Move", wherein the opponent has to make only one choice, and it is usually not a good one! As the investing world moves forward, fewer and fewer choices are available to prudent investors, and economists and Fundamental Analysts seem to be in unanimous agreement (usually a bad contrary sign) that the U.S. stock market will rise in the next three months to 2 years or more.

The Technical picture, based here on Sentiment Indicators is not so one-sided, although there are some eye-popping moves from last week - more explanation at:

Exchange Volume was at a 2014 high (Selling Climax?); the CBOE put/call ratio as well. The Commitment of Traders "smart money" - large traders, was dead even (buy/short), while the small ones were net long 20k.Finally, Insider Trading dropped to 13:1 sellers, but the surprise number was the 10% stock holders almost unanimously buying more stock!

Here are the numbers:

Date> 10/17/2014 10/10/2014
Indices: DJIA  16380 16544
NAZ  4258 4276
SPX  1886 1906
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 12.7/5.2 11.3/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.44 2.69
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  75 72
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 22 21.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2000/1250 801/2453
Weekly Net: -750 -1652
     Cumulative: 158724 160251
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 89/813 103/565
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 81/650 80/549
McClellan  Oscillator 10 -61
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -625 -475
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 37.8 45.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.3 14.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.7 39.9
Bear  33.7 31
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 0k/20k (7k)/24k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (75k) (63k)
CEOinsider selling 13:1 40:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160:20BUY 175:40
3-box rev Bullish%-  41 61
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B (22B) 17.0B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.38% 0.43%

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