Monday, October 13, 2014


I knew if I went on vacation to San Diego for a week the market would go crazy - especially during this critical Sept.-Oct. span. Luckily, even with a few Sentiment and breadth extremes, my current investment strategies - DITM and especially Leaps are not directly affected. I shall be giving a talk on these this Saturday at the SF Option Group monthly meetup at Ft. Mason - 9 a.m. BLDG C (Rm.235) for local readers.

The overdue correction brought a few extreme readings in the last two posts - the previous week's unavailable (n/a) are updated today:
NYSE Volume increased as expected; also the CBOE put/call ratio and VIX did as well. Breadth (advance/declines) were negative for the fourth week - mutual fund outflows reached 6 straight weeks. The McClellan Oscillator was below -50, which again failed to see a buy signal today, and the Summation is at a recent low - hopefully support. Incidentally, Tom McClellan will be presenting at the TSAA annual seminar this month - please see my column if interested in attending:

Finally, the 2-year Treasury yield dropped dramatically- all numbers are below:

Date> 10/10/2014 10/2/14*
Indices: DJIA  16544 17010
  NAZ  4276 4481
SPX  1906 1968
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 11.3/4.2 10.0/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.69 2.44
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  72 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 21.2 14.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 801/2453 1235/2012
Weekly Net: -1652 -777
     Cumulative: 160251 161126
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 103/565 92/445
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 80/549 105/410
McClellan  Oscillator -61 -53
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -475 -272
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 45.5 47.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 14.1 15.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 39.9 35.4
Bear  31 30.9
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k (7k)/24k n/a
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (63k)
CEOinsider selling 40:1 52:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:40 175:40
3-box rev Bullish%-  61 65
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (4.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B 17.0B 22.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  463B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1141/454/281
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.43% 0.57%

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