Monday, September 8, 2014


Thanks to the Fed Head's foot on the gas pedal, market cycles seem to be reversing, or at least unpredictably inconsistent. August, a usually bad month, from 2011 to 2013 was down, up, then down; Sept., the worst of the 12 months, was down in '11 but up the last two years.  October - the month to fear, going back to 1929, was up big in 2011, down some in '12, then straight up hugely in 2013! Finally, November, was down two years until 2013. So far this year - August was up huge 90 points, of nearly 5%.

The Investors' Intelligence Bearish %, at 13.3% last week, is the lowest since 1987. Commercial gold sellers remain high, thanks to Super Mario's QE raising the $$ by lowering the Euro strength.

Here are the numbers from the Holiday week:

Date> 9/5/2014 8/29/2014
Indices: DJIA  17137 17098
  NAZ  4582 4580
SPX  2007 2003
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 7.0/2.4 6.8/2.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.9 2.6
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.1 12
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1371/1837 2168/1058
Weekly Net: -466 1110
     Cumulative: 165677 166143
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 402/52 428/42
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 250/108 230/98
McClellan  Oscillator 6 N/A
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 586 N/A
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 56.1 52.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 13.3 15.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 44.7 51.9
Bear  24 19.2
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 3/(9) N/A
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (104k) N/A
CEOinsider selling 27:1 N/A
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175/35 N/A
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 75
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (2.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (8.7B) 11B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.51% N/A

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