Monday, September 22, 2014

Monday, Monday

Today marks the Autumnal Equinox, and the market is reacting to it, so far. At least it's as good an excuse as the other media offerings. Breadth, as measured by the NYSE Advance/Decline line, was negative (barely) for the third week. Despite all the headlines about DJIA and S&P500 up to new highs, the underlying picture is not that great - especially for small caps.

Per Barron's Trader: Since March 2009 stocks have made new highs, the fourth longest and biggest rise in history; yet now the average stock in the SPX is DOWN 7% from its 52-week high. For one thing, only about 250 of the 500 stocks from 2008 still exist in the Index; the Wilshire 5000 went to @6500 awhile back, but is now only @2500 stocks - Survivorship bias. Also, The SPX is Cap weighted, meaning the biggest stocks (Google, Apple, ) dominate.

More of this at:

Although most Sentiment Indicators have regressed to the mean lately, a couple are notable: In the Commitment of Traders (COT) large traders have jumped to the Buy side, while small ones reversed to selling (see below); although Gold looks terrible weak vis-a-vis the strong Dollar, commercial traders have lightened upon their selling. Finally, insider selling, at least by sector, rose the past two weeks, while MMF flows reversed from Up $6B to Down $16B.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 9/19/2014 9/12/2014
Indices: DJIA  17279 16987
  NAZ  4579 4567
SPX  2010 1985
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 10.1/4.4 8.8/3.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.3 2.84
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.1 13.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1604/1622 718/2528
Weekly Net: -18 -1810
     Cumulative: 163849 163867
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 209/187 219/123
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 174/232 195/148
McClellan  Oscillator -28 -51
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 248 433
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 52.5 57.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.2 14.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.2 40.4
Bear  23 26.6
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 11k/(22k) 0/(7k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (77k) (98k)
CEOinsider selling 61:1 48:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175/30 200/40
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 75
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B (16.7B) 6.5B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  460B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1100/443/272
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.57% 0.56%

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