Monday, September 15, 2014


So far this week the markets are slightly positive, as consistently predicted (short term) by the McClellan Oscillator, which ended last week at minus 51. Much happening this week as the Fed tries to parse words about rates, BABA IPO comes out, and Scotland decides whether it wants a divided or united kingdom- DK or UK? (one floor trader I worked with used to use DK as short for Don't Know!)

For what it's worth, the 2-year Treas. yield jumped to a recent high last week at .56%, bringing up the question of Interest Rates versus Inflation. Stocks seem to do well with rising interest rates, especially if due to an improving economy- however, as Jim Paulsen posits, over the past 30 years 6 of the last 7 Inflation hikes have resulted in either corrections or Bear markets - the 7th waiting until 2008! Stock market rises have come during Disinflation.

Finally, despite the NYSE's Advance/decline "bad breadth", Inv. Intlell. Bears (from wire house newsletters) remain at complacent lows. Here are the numbers:

Date> 9/12/2014 9/5/2014
Indices: DJIA  16987 17137
NAZ  4567 4582
SPX  1985 2007
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.8/3.1 7.0/2.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.84 2.9
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.3 12.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 718/2528 1371/1837
Weekly Net: -1810 -466
     Cumulative: 163867 165677
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 219/123 402/52
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 195/148 250/108
McClellan  Oscillator -51 6
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 433 586
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 57.6 56.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 14.1 13.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 40.4 44.7
Bear  26.6 24
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 0/(7k) 3/(9)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (98k) (104k)
CEOinsider selling 48:1 27:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 200/40 175/35
3-box rev Bullish%-  75 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (5.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B 6.5B (8.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JULY
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B JULY
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.56% 0.51%

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