Monday, November 5, 2012


In a classic whipsaw last week, due to the storm closures, the markets experienced a Candlestick Doji on Hallowe'en, followed by huge back to back days going nowhere. As investors and voters wait on tenterhooks for the election results ( hopefully sometime Tuesday night despite east coast problems), markets remain sideways.
It is obviously hard to tell what markets will do based on the results - an Obama victory would keep much of the Fiscal Cliff alive - PPACA, benefits, (Debt), etc., while a Romney victory would see the Bernanke put expire worthless, ending the sugar high equities markets.

 Because of the two-day hiatus Volume was low, but still a speculative 2.29:1 ratio of NASD to NYSE; the  CBOE equity put/call ratio lessened a bit, but still high (Bullish). Breadth ( Advance to Declines) swung mightily from negative to positive, as did NASD new highs/lows. Newsletter surveys came out despite the storm (Tues. & Wed. results) but diverged widely, as shown below.

The McClellan Oscillator is still negative while its cumulative Summation is headed down to zero - don't expect a new Bull market until it bottoms out well below the zero line, if past is prologue.
Finally, over $22B came out of MMFunds last week.

Here are the numbers:

11/2/2012 10/26/2012
Indices: DJIA  13093 13107
  NAZ  2982 2987

SPX  1414 1411
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   5.5/2.4 9.0/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.29* 2.65

Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  68 75
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.6 17.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1919/1222 1151/1998
Weekly Net:
697 -847
     Cumulative: 141883 141186
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 318/87 231/113
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 169/138 117/186
McClellan  Oscillator -19 -37
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 339 381
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 41.5 41.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 27.7 27.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 35.7 29.2

Bear  23.3 43.1
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 1/24. (3)/30
CEOinsider selling 13:1 55:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 69
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag (1.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B (22.7B) .9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  287B AUG.:
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 715/270/230 AUG.:
Assets in  Billion$$ . week
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.29% 0.31%

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