Monday, October 1, 2012


Readers of my blogs/Examiner columns are familiar with the Election Year stock market model since 1900 produced by Ned Davis Research - going according to plan ( an UP September), now the divergence begins:
According to the chart, from October 1 on, if the Incumbent is to win, all is well and the market (i.e. the economy) will rise until year end. Only if the Incumbent is to lose (not get termed out) will October and the rest of 2012 be flat to down. Of course, as we know, there are exceptions.

Last week's prediction of the market letting off the gas (not hitting the brake) held true, with extremes in the overbought area. Things have modulated - the McClellan Oscillator fell to minus 29; the AAII bull/bear ratio is even. The speculative NASD to NYSE Volume ratio is again high, as is the CBOE Equity put/call ratio - both Bullish. Contrarily, the MMFund flows reversed again to INFLOWS and equity mutual funds lost funds.

Next week I shall again (!) be on vacation to San Diego, away from my desktop until the following week. Since I am visiting my cousin who is a V.P. at J. P. Morgan, I want to show him an example of my DITM strategy using his stock. It demonstrates how one can earn 10% with almost NO risk. For details, please see:

There are also two important investment meetings coming up next week, listed in my Examiner column ( the reader can subscribe to the column for future meetups and columns at:

Here are the  Sentiment numbers:


9/28/2012 9/21/2012
Indices: DJIA  13437 13579
  NAZ  3116 3179

SPX  1440 1460
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   8.9/3.6 9.2/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.47 2.09

Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  69 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.73 13.98
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1080/2083 1371/1768
Weekly Net:
-1003 -397
     Cumulative: 142058 143061
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 426/38 505/32
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 293/75 332/74
McClellan  Oscillator -29 4
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 749 888
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 51 54.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 24.5 24.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 36.1 37.5

Bear  36.5 33.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 0/24. 9/22.
CEOinsider selling 44:1 42:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 79
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (4.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B 8.5B (10.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.23% 0.27%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

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