BACK FROM VACATION:

Monday, October 22, 2012

BACK FROM VACATION:

After a choppy three weeks going nowhere, Friday's Anniversary tank finalized what could be a Triple Top in the SPX, with Sentiment Indicators not indicating much. The NASD/NYSE Volume remains high, a speculative sign, breadth is still strong and the McClellan Oscillator remains negative. The Bull Bear surveys contrast with the AAII showing huge Bear numbers.
The CBOE equity put/call ratio remains high (Bullish), yet in Barron's option column, Larry McMillan's over all equity put/call ratio is coming off its lows - a negative for the market over the past year (very high inverse correlation).
On the downside, MMFs gained billions of $$ while equity mutual funds continued to lose them; Bullish % - a great showing of overbought SPX stocks, is high.
Below are the numbers for the past two weeks, as well as the 7-year highs and lows above that:

Date>		7Yr.HI	LOW
Indices:	DJIA	14093	6626
	NAZ	2937	1114
	SPX	1561	683
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3.15	1.59
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	104.11/08	42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		90	8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..
Weekly Net:
Cumulative:		143458	71464
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	950	18
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l
McClellan	Oscillator	May.'12:110	-100 :10/08
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1568-6/03	-1514
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	62.9-12/04	22.2-10/08
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	54.4-10/08	15.6
	AAII -Bull :wed.	(12/10)63.3
	Bear	70.3(3/09)	16.4
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k
CEOinsider	selling	235:1	.2.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	88	2
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	381B(7/07)
MMF flows	Change in $B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond
	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation

LAST WEEK'S SENTIMENT NUMBERS:

Date>

10/12/2012

10/19/2012

Indices:

DJIA

13328

13343

NAZ

3044

3005

SPX

1428

1433

WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE

7.7/2.9

9.3/3.6

Specul.Ratio hi=bullish

2.66

2.58

nasd/nyse

Sentiment:

put/call-CBOE

VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8

16.1

17.06

Advance/Dec-NYSE..

884/2268

1864/1288

Weekly Net:

-1768

576

Cumulative:

141457

142033

Weekly

NYSE hi/low

294/71

468/70

New Hi's/Low's

Nasdaq h/l

163/132

220/131

McClellan

Oscillator

-25

-18

McClellanSum

.+750/-1000

520

557

Newsletter

Inv.Intel -Bull:tues

45.7

42.6

Surveys

Bear:-5yrs

25.5

26.6

AAII -Bull :wed.

30.6

28.7

Bear

38.8

44.5

COT:Change w/w

large/small (net)k

. 4/24

CEOinsider

selling

11:1

12:1

3-box rev

Bullish%-

US equity -ICI

Fund Flows

(2.3B)

1weeklag

MMF flows

Change in $B

(1.4B)

5.8B

MargDebt- top (300M)

monthly

AUG:

287B

ETF:Eqty/

Int'l/Bond

AUG:

715/270/230

Assets in

Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation

n/a

0.30%

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