Monday, October 22, 2012


After a choppy three weeks going nowhere, Friday's Anniversary tank finalized what could be a Triple Top in the SPX, with Sentiment Indicators not indicating much. The NASD/NYSE Volume remains high, a speculative sign, breadth is still strong and the McClellan Oscillator remains negative. The Bull Bear surveys contrast with the AAII showing huge Bear numbers.
The CBOE equity put/call ratio remains high (Bullish), yet in Barron's option column, Larry McMillan's over all equity put/call ratio is coming off its lows - a negative for the market over the past year (very high inverse correlation).
On the downside, MMFs gained billions of $$ while equity mutual funds continued to lose them; Bullish % - a great showing of overbought SPX stocks, is high.
Below are the numbers for the past two weeks, as well as the 7-year highs and lows above that:

Indices: DJIA  14093 6626
  NAZ  2937 1114

SPX  1561 683
WklyVolume (Bshs).  
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.15 1.59
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  104.11/08 42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 90 8.8
Weekly Net:    
     Cumulative: 143458 71464
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 950 18
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l    
McClellan  Oscillator May.'12:110 -100 :10/08
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1568-6/03 -1514
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 62.9-12/04 22.2-10/08
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 54.4-10/08 15.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. (12/10)63.3  

Bear  70.3(3/09) 16.4
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k    
CEOinsider selling 235:1 .2.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  88 2
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 381B(7/07)  
MMF flows Change in $B

MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond

 Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation


10/12/2012 10/19/2012
Indices: DJIA  13328 13343
  NAZ  3044 3005

SPX  1428 1433
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   7.7/2.9 9.3/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.66 2.58

Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  68 68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.1 17.06
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 884/2268 1864/1288
Weekly Net:
-1768 576
     Cumulative: 141457 142033
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 294/71 468/70
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 163/132 220/131
McClellan  Oscillator -25 -18
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 520 557
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 45.7 42.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 25.5 26.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 30.6 28.7

Bear  38.8 44.5
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k .  4/24
CEOinsider selling 11:1 12:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (2.3B) 1weeklag
MMF flows Change in $B (1.4B) 5.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  AUG: 287B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond AUG: 715/270/230
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation n/a 0.30%


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