Monday, March 12, 2012

GETTING SENTIMENTAL:

The quickest way to double your money is
to fold it in half and put it back in your pocket.

Markets are still having trouble getting through resistance: triple zero (the DJIA at 13,000); the S&P 500, 1370 prior top, etc. Technically this works because people who bought there are selling to get even, and technicians are aware of this - so it is self-fulfilling.
 In Wyckoff jargon, the current Trading Range is transfer of shares either from strong hands to weak (for a Distribution) or the opposite (ReAccumulation). Future direction will give the answer.
No new extremes to report, only a Regression from the recent ones - put/calls at 68; Bullish % at 83; CEO selling still high. Here are the numbers:

Date>
3/8/2012 3/1/2012
Indices: DJIA  12922 12977..
NAZ  2988 2976

SPX  1370 1369
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.3/3.7 9.3/4.1
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.24 2.27
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  68 63
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.1 17.3

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1667/1475 1401/1759..

Weekly Net: 192 -358

     Cumulative: 133415 133223
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 248/46 383/27
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 177/88 236/63
McClellan  Oscillator 0 -37
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 912 1116
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 47.9 51.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 26.6 25.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 42.4 44.5

Bear  29 26.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (9)/20 (5)/24
CEOinsider selling 34:1 45:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 771 763
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 85
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (3.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B (7.0B) (13.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.33% 0.28%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.23 5.19
 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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