Monday, December 26, 2011


This week is traditionally the week for the Santa Claus rally and the Mother of all rallies (in his 40 years) that Tom Demark predicted (offset a couple weeks). Also notable are the technically high probability events ( recently negated by Fed intervention, etc.) are the January Effect of small cap stocks and CEF (closed-end funds), such as munis, that get sold off in December, only to rally in January - something that is observable if not actionable.
Indicators are mean reverted, except for the McClellan Oscillator near its high border of 50, and bull/bear newsletters approaching complacency - so we could have a hiccup on the way higher. With markets barely even from a year ago, and even a decade ago, you might want to check out my other blog: for safer yet much more rewarding strategy, or just an alternative to zero interest rates in CDs, MMFs, etc.
Here are the Indicators for last week:

12/23/2011 12/16/2011
Indices: DJIA  12294 11866
  NAZ  2618 2555

SPX  1265 1219
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs) 3.8/7.7 5.3/9.3
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.03 1.75
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 80
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 20.7 24.29

Advance/Dec-NYSE 2577/587 813/2348

Weekly Net: 1990 -1535

     Cumulative: 125945 123955
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 293/146 190/168
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 111/257 87/292
McClellan  Oscillator 48 -17
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 134 81
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 48.4 45.3
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 30.5 30.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 33.7 40.2

Bear  28.2 33.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 0/12. 17/19.
CEOinsider selling 10:1 19:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 1888 1889
3-box rev Bullish%-  61 58
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (4.0B)
MMF flows Change in $B 14.2B .3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.29% 0.23%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset 5.06M 5.78M

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

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