Monday, December 19, 2011


Over the years I've heard Technical Analyst Tom Demark at TSAA meetings, Bloomberg talks (he was on their staff with his Indicator), even had dinner with him - but never quite bought into his math predictions. Two weeks ago , highly touted by Bloomberg's Adam Johnson, as being followed by Soros, SAC's Cohen,, when his bullish prediction lined up with my observations, I forecasted a seasonal rally.
Tom's prediction: 1330-45 on the SPX by the 21st of Dec. did seem pretty outlandish, and now - two days away, with the SPX at 1212, it would take a Xmas miracle to get there, although a yearend rally is likely (The Santa Claus rally is actually between Xmas and New Year's).
Other than the CBOE put/call ratio at 80, no other Indicator is at an extreme, this past low-volume week:

12/16/2011 12/9/2011
Indices: DJIA  11866 12184
NAZ  2555 2646

SPX  1219 1255
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs) 5.3/9.3 4.4/8.3
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.75 1.89
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  80 77
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 24.29 26.38

Advance/Dec-NYSE 813/2348 1876/1269

Weekly Net: -1535 607

     Cumulative: 123955 125490
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 190/168 239/44
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 87/292 110/147
McClellan  Oscillator -17 16
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 81 237
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 45.3 47.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 30.5 29.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 40.2 38.6

Bear  33.6 34.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 17/19. 11/34.
CEOinsider selling 19:1 40:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 1889 1882
3-box rev Bullish%-  58 61
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag 1 wk lag
MMF flows Change in $B .3B 25.3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT. 283B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT. 615/265/174
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.23% 0.23%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset 5.78M


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