Monday, May 3, 2010


Almost every analyst is calling for at least a 10% upmove in stocks for the near future, based on fundamental, historical, and cyclical factors, including lack of alternatives with low rates. Sentiment continues to be at extremes, however, indicating hiccups or even burps in the short term.
To coin a phrase, "It is necessary to clean the house before throwing a party!". Warnings continue from last week, including another magazine cover - Barron's - with a Bear getting impaled by a locomotive. Advance/declines and the McClellan Oscillator suffered with another Friday fear selloff, although new highs abound. Insider Selling was record, although suspect due to several "n/a's" from 3 sectors. Without them it tripled the previous week to 154:1. Money is trickling out of MMFs and starting to trickle into domestic equity mutual funds.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
S&P 500:118612171561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 525196-10/0846-1/03
McClellan Osc:-3220108-100
McClellan Sum:113312181568-1514
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AAII Bull:
AAII Bear:
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
US Equity-1 week lagn/a               2.8B
Money Market Flows-6B-35B

ETF equity:Monthly TotalsMar.805BFeb.750B

Baltic Dry Index:3354300611700663
Bullish %:
Insider Corporate Sellers:154:1?52:1108:12.4:1

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