Saturday, April 24, 2010


In his famous book Nassim Taleb talks about the complacency a turkey feels, being well fed, even massaged, comfortable surroundings, etc. Then, on Thanksgiving Day, things change dramatically!
How nice the stock market proceeds, not a negative Advance/Decline ratio since the week of Feb.5, setting new cumulative A/Ds on my charts - New highs hitting the 900s for the first time in memory.
Meanwhile, Insider Selling, although down from the near-record 91 last week, only fell to 51:1. Money Market Funds lost another $35B but less than $1B went into domestic equities' funds. In the past y/y to March, $410B went into bond funds while only $18B went into stocks.

The Rydex Nova to Ursa (the bear) ratio broke up through the 1 level for the first time, up to 1.27; and the Bullish percent is right at record levels. 

The only question seems to be: is the correction going to be severe, or moderated as if by unseen forces?

Here are the exact numbers:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
S&P 500:121711921561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 514296-10/0846-1/03
McClellan Osc:20-29108-100
McClellan Sum:121812411568-1514
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AAII Bull:
AAII Bear:
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:0.860.942.20.56
US Equity-1 week lagn/a                -.5B
Money Market Flows-35B-51B

ETF equity:Monthly TotalsFeb.750BJan.731B

Baltic Dry Index:3006300911700663
Bullish %:
Insider Corporate Sellers:52:191:1108:12.4:1

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