BLACK SWAN DIVE:

Once again (going back to 1987) the Quants were surprised by the failure of their algorithms, causing yet another hiccup in an overbought condition. Coincidentally, I have been reading the excellent book - The Quants- by Scott Patterson, which in very readable narrative style describes the '08 meltdown, so similar to last week's.

As noted here last week, there were huge extremes in breadth and sentiment indicators, and, as in 1987, there were no backstops (such as Specialists and Market Makers) in the ECNs to make orderly markets by hitting the bids.

Since the newsletter surveys come out midweek, they did not factor in the excesses of Thursday, but end-of-week stats such as the McClellan Oscillator, at -123 and a CBOE put/call ratio of 69 posited that after the weekend there might be a rally, if one dared. Although new highs still bested new lows, the A/D for the week was a stunning 150 to 3078!

Finally, the Bullish per cent dropped over 20 points on the Pt.& Fig. charts, for a Sell signal - falling to 61.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10380	11008	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2265	2461	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1110	1186	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	69	52	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	41.0	22.0	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-123	-32	108	-123
McClellan Sum:	768	1133	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	56.0	54.0	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	18.7	18.0	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	39.1	41.4	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	28.6	28.6	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	1.02	1.19	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	.25B
Money Market Flows	-19B	-6B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Mar.805B	Feb.750B
Baltic Dry Index:	3354	3006	11700	663
Bullish %:	6184	84	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	52:1	154:1?	108:1	2.4:1

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BLACK SWAN DIVE: