Monday, April 5, 2010


Despite having owned a bar in San Francisco for nearly 20 years, I never was convinced that the best way to cure a hangover was to imbibe more - the pain of excess still has to be felt and endured! Likewise, the government continues to artificially bail out imprudent investors, individual and commercial. For example, housing credits for people who never could have afforded homes expires at the end of this month - will it be renewed? Banks are right back to their nonbank investing, only with government money instead of investors. Autos and retail stores are again offering zero down payments. Isn't this the Japanese model all over?

The stock market proceeds suspiciously onward like a CD, as talking heads put a positive spin on every new economic number, although it does look like it is improving (with or without Stimulus). Most indicators are midrange, with a couple exceptions. The Inv. Intell. Bears broke down through 20 for the first time since the minicrash of January 22; the Nova/Ursa ratio at 0.85 is the highest since September 25 - there was a small hiccup right after, but it was in the middle of a longer rally. Breadth is incredibly strong - new highs again in my cumulative A/D; the Bullish % approaches new highs, and money flows from Money Market Funds, with a lot left in them.

Here are the weekly numbers:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
S&P 500:117811741561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 5155496-10/0846-1/03
McClellan Osc:-1-19108-100
McClellan Sum:122112581568-1514
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AAII Bull:
AAII Bear:
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:0.850.672.20.56
US Equity-1 week lag           n/a                   -1.B
Money Market Flows-30B-4B

ETF equity:Monthly TotalsFeb.750BJan.731B

Baltic Dry Index:2991309811700663
Bullish %:
Insider Corporate Sellers:28:119:1108:12.4:1

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