CREATE YOUR OWN CEO SPEECH:

"We look after our customer's interests/the road ahead/our assets are our people/creation of shareholder value/our vision/our expertise lies in/we provide interactive solutions/we position ourselves in this market/how to serve our customers better/short term pain for long term gain/we will be rewarded in the long run/we play from our strength and improve our weaknesses/courage and determination will prevail/we are committed to innovation and technology/a happy employee is a productive employee/commitment to excellence/ strategic /Plan/our work ethics."
Excerpted from Nassim Taleb's book Fooled By Randomness , by selecting any key phrases one can create a speech for any politician or CEO and save all that time not listening to them when the earnings start to roll out next week.
After a huge 2-week rally of over 20 %, and bumping up against significant Resistance of @800 on the S&P 500, we now see some profit taking/window-dressing, closing March with a whimper.
The ratio-adjusted McClellan Oscillator remains above +50 (my overbought level), and short interest on the NY rose over 10% (5% on OTC). Yet surveys remain inverted - Bearish ON the market/Bullish FOR it. Bullish per cent is getting a bit toppy, and the Baltic Dry Index, a global economic indicator, continues to fall after its recent rally.
Here are the rest:
MktSentiment. 3/27/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 7776……….7278.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1545……….1457…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 815………..768………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call ……62………..62……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 41……….45.9…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………56………….57……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-176………-554……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…28.9…………28.4……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 43.3…………44.3…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……39.1/42.1……45.1/58.3….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..66………..58……………..91………….59
Baltic Dry Index ……1678………1782…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…48…………38buy………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers. 6:1…………10:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows …(4.5B)……2.1B
ETF InflowsL……… … 1B…. .1B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking

WHEN YOU FIND YOURSELF IN DEEP WATER,:

KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT!
It is difficult enough to trade/invest in the markets without these sea change announcements by various confidence-building gov't officials. Just when one figures out where it's at, they move it. Now the elected representatives who brought us the US Post Office, IRS, Medicare and Social Security, want to partner with the folks that got us into this mess - the investment institutions. In poker, if you do not know who the patsy at the World Series table is, it is you. The taxpayer takes 90% of the risk (including 10% ante) for 50% of the profits (bad pot odds).
However, these sharpies, who are compensated by short-term quarterly profits, and will certainly not be taking the short end of the carrot stick; neither they or the banks holding this toxicity want to risk big gov't clampdowns on bonuses, etc. while becoming the Limited Partner in this plan vs. the General Partner-the gov't. Investors know how that usually turns out.
Meanwhile, Schwab is selling its age-old S.F. headquarters, cutting staff and trying to leave the state, bit by bit; Barclays Global wants to sell its S.F. iShares unit, and now we have credit unions going under, and quarterly earnings in the near future - so why is the market up 400 pts.today?
Tom McClellan, in his March 10 newsletter, called for 5 days of rally starting with the 10th -spot on. He also sees a longer rally after some topping, but the Oscillator is now coming off the +100 mark, still over 50, at 54 this week - that's negative.
Also giving mixed signals, the Insider Selling of corporations jumped from its lows to 10:1, and mutual funds and hedgefunds saw inflows last week. Newsletter surveys improved, but both AAII and Inv.Intell. are bullishly inverted yet.
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 3/20/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 7278……….7223.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1457……….1431…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 768………..756………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call ……62………..61……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 45.9……..42…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………57………….54……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-554………-950……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…28.4……….26.4……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 44.3……….47.2…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……45.1/58.3…..27.6/54.5….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..58………60……………..91………….59
Baltic Dry Index ……1782……..2122…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…38buy........26buy………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers. 10:1……..3.2:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows …2.1B……(8.2B)….
ETF InflowsL……… …….1B…..(.2B)…
Money Market Inflows: na………..na… ………144B (9/08)

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH!:

Way back in grammar school we learned that the "Articles" were - a, an, and the. They have never been more important than now in differentiating between A bottom of the market and THE bottom. The current administration has decided to bully pulpit the confidence factor after flooding the system with money ( it surely worked in Zimbabwe with 11,000,000% Inflation). Obama now decides the Economy is O K; Bernanke gives the first Fed Head interview, and Geithner shuts up.
Last week's blog noted extremes, even a couple records, in the sentiment indicators and the market took off the next day, without looking back. Despite the NASA-like liftoff, markets face powerful Resistance at 800 SPX and 7900 DJIA, as the sentiment regresses back to the mean. Standing out last week was the dramatic shift of the McClellan Oscillator from oversold -76 to an overbought +54! The concomitant Summation Index remains oversold, however.
Between massive shortcovering and bandwagoning, the extreme Adv./Decl. reversed, from 1:10 to 10:1; the AAII Bulls stayed at 1:2 versus Bears, and the Bullish per cent doubled on a buy signal.
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 3/13/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 7223……….6626.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1431……….1293…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 756……….683………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call ……61……….84……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 42……….49…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………54…………-76……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-950………-936……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…26.4……….29.7……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 47.2………44.0…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……27.6/54.5…18.9/70.3….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..60………59……………..91………….59
Baltic Dry Index ……2122……..2225…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…26buy……..13………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers. 3.2:1………2.4:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows …(8.2B)….(7.2B)….
ETF InflowsL……… ……(.2B)… (1B)…
Money Market Inflows: na………..na… ………144B (9/08)

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

CMJ - CRITICAL MARKET JUNCTURE:

Call it intuition, or "into wishin'", but as bad as the future looks, the market seems very oversold, with not only sentiment indicator extremes, but a couple record numbers. If not a sharp shortcovering rally ahead, at least a temporary cessation to the downside, now that we are about 32% below the 200-MAs on the Dow and SPX.
Highly publicized records on the AAII Bear/Bull ratio of 70 to 18 is one of the better forecasters, but also the Insider CEO buying to selling at 1: 2.4 worked well last November, for awhile.
The McClellan Oscillator, while coming off its extreme lows of below -100 to an improved breadth of -76, is still below my guide of -50; and the Summation Index is just off -1000 at -936.
Still, the adv/decline and new low/highs were climactic at 1:10 and 6 to 1100, respectively! Finally, the Bullish per cent is in the teens, at 13 (not quite the record 2 we saw previously last Fall).
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 3/6/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 6626……….7062.………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1293……….1377…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 683………..735………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……84………..69……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 49………..46…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-76……….-62……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-936……..-542……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…29.7………28.6……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 44.0………45.1……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……18.9/70.3….24.3/55.1….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..59………..63……………..91………….59
Baltic Dry Index ……2225………1986…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…13…………..22………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers. 2.4:1………. 7:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows …(7.2B)….(6.4)…)…
ETF InflowsL……… (1B)………(.2B)…
Money Market Inflows: na………..8B)… ………144B (9/08)

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

"BRAKING" NEWS:

It seems more and more news channels are using the above headline to collect eyeballs, even though the "news" is hours or days old, especially on the Prison and Caylee channels.
If Gloom and Doom signifies a bottom (or at least a temporary respite in the monthly slide of the markets), Barron's led the way last week - column titles included: Worst may be ahead; Treasurys no haven; Asia's slide may be far from over; Making problem worse; Make or break time, etc.
Add to that Alan Abelson's column stating Consumer expectations at 27 - much lower than the previous 1973 low of 45; and Conference Board's Consumer Confidence is at 25 - all time low!
Several Sentiment Indicators are starting to reach extremes as the DJIA breaks 12-year levels: New highs to lows are still terrible (almost 1:100); the McClellan Oscillator -ratio adjusted- is off the previous week lows of -91 to -62 (still oversold).
Newsletter surveys get more Bearishly inverted (see below); Bullish per cent at 22 is at previous support levels, but will probably go lower soon, along with the markets - and money is flowing out of equity mutual funds into money markets.
Finally, the Volume on the SDS (short SPY) is near record highs.
Maybe paycheck money (from those still working) can start a weak rally until they get their monthly brokerage statements.
Here are the stats:
MktSentiment. 2/27/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 7062………7365.………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1377……….1441…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 735………..770………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……69………..87……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 46……….49…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-62……….-96……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-542…….-180……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…28.6………..31.1……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 45.1……….41.1……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……24.3/55.1….21.6/56.7…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..63………66……………..91
Baltic Dry Index ……1986……..2099…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…22………….28………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers. 7:1…..4:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows …(6.4)……(.7B)…
ETF InflowsL……… (.2B)…….(5.5B)…
Money Market Inflows: 8B……..(16B)… ………144B (9/08)

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.