CMJ - CRITICAL MARKET JUNCTURE:

Call it intuition, or "into wishin'", but as bad as the future looks, the market seems very oversold, with not only sentiment indicator extremes, but a couple record numbers. If not a sharp shortcovering rally ahead, at least a temporary cessation to the downside, now that we are about 32% below the 200-MAs on the Dow and SPX.
Highly publicized records on the AAII Bear/Bull ratio of 70 to 18 is one of the better forecasters, but also the Insider CEO buying to selling at 1: 2.4 worked well last November, for awhile.
The McClellan Oscillator, while coming off its extreme lows of below -100 to an improved breadth of -76, is still below my guide of -50; and the Summation Index is just off -1000 at -936.
Still, the adv/decline and new low/highs were climactic at 1:10 and 6 to 1100, respectively! Finally, the Bullish per cent is in the teens, at 13 (not quite the record 2 we saw previously last Fall).
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 3/6/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 6626……….7062.………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1293……….1377…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 683………..735………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……84………..69……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 49………..46…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-76……….-62……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-936……..-542……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…29.7………28.6……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 44.0………45.1……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……18.9/70.3….24.3/55.1….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..59………..63……………..91………….59
Baltic Dry Index ……2225………1986…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…13…………..22………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers. 2.4:1………. 7:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows …(7.2B)….(6.4)…)…
ETF InflowsL……… (1B)………(.2B)…
Money Market Inflows: na………..8B)… ………144B (9/08)

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CMJ - CRITICAL MARKET JUNCTURE: