BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH!:

Way back in grammar school we learned that the "Articles" were - a, an, and the. They have never been more important than now in differentiating between A bottom of the market and THE bottom. The current administration has decided to bully pulpit the confidence factor after flooding the system with money ( it surely worked in Zimbabwe with 11,000,000% Inflation). Obama now decides the Economy is O K; Bernanke gives the first Fed Head interview, and Geithner shuts up.
Last week's blog noted extremes, even a couple records, in the sentiment indicators and the market took off the next day, without looking back. Despite the NASA-like liftoff, markets face powerful Resistance at 800 SPX and 7900 DJIA, as the sentiment regresses back to the mean. Standing out last week was the dramatic shift of the McClellan Oscillator from oversold -76 to an overbought +54! The concomitant Summation Index remains oversold, however.
Between massive shortcovering and bandwagoning, the extreme Adv./Decl. reversed, from 1:10 to 10:1; the AAII Bulls stayed at 1:2 versus Bears, and the Bullish per cent doubled on a buy signal.
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 3/13/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 7223……….6626.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1431……….1293…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 756……….683………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call ……61……….84……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 42……….49…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………54…………-76……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-950………-936……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…26.4……….29.7……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 47.2………44.0…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……27.6/54.5…18.9/70.3….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..60………59……………..91………….59
Baltic Dry Index ……2122……..2225…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…26buy……..13………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers. 3.2:1………2.4:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows …(8.2B)….(7.2B)….
ETF InflowsL……… ……(.2B)… (1B)…
Money Market Inflows: na………..na… ………144B (9/08)

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH!: