Monday, March 23, 2009

WHEN YOU FIND YOURSELF IN DEEP WATER,:

KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT!
It is difficult enough to trade/invest in the markets without these sea change announcements by various confidence-building gov't officials. Just when one figures out where it's at, they move it. Now the elected representatives who brought us the US Post Office, IRS, Medicare and Social Security, want to partner with the folks that got us into this mess - the investment institutions. In poker, if you do not know who the patsy at the World Series table is, it is you. The taxpayer takes 90% of the risk (including 10% ante) for 50% of the profits (bad pot odds).
However, these sharpies, who are compensated by short-term quarterly profits, and will certainly not be taking the short end of the carrot stick; neither they or the banks holding this toxicity want to risk big gov't clampdowns on bonuses, etc. while becoming the Limited Partner in this plan vs. the General Partner-the gov't. Investors know how that usually turns out.
Meanwhile, Schwab is selling its age-old S.F. headquarters, cutting staff and trying to leave the state, bit by bit; Barclays Global wants to sell its S.F. iShares unit, and now we have credit unions going under, and quarterly earnings in the near future - so why is the market up 400 pts.today?
Tom McClellan, in his March 10 newsletter, called for 5 days of rally starting with the 10th -spot on. He also sees a longer rally after some topping, but the Oscillator is now coming off the +100 mark, still over 50, at 54 this week - that's negative.
Also giving mixed signals, the Insider Selling of corporations jumped from its lows to 10:1, and mutual funds and hedgefunds saw inflows last week. Newsletter surveys improved, but both AAII and Inv.Intell. are bullishly inverted yet.
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 3/20/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 7278……….7223.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1457……….1431…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 768………..756………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call ……62………..61……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 45.9……..42…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………57………….54……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-554………-950……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…28.4……….26.4……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 44.3……….47.2…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……45.1/58.3…..27.6/54.5….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..58………60……………..91………….59
Baltic Dry Index ……1782……..2122…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…38buy........26buy………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers. 10:1……..3.2:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows …2.1B……(8.2B)….
ETF InflowsL……… …….1B…..(.2B)…
Money Market Inflows: na………..na… ………144B (9/08)

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

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