Monday, August 3, 2009

CAVEAT EMPTY:

Although this rara avis of a Summer Rally (a White Swan) continues to confound the experts, there are a couple blinking orange caution lights up ahead. Years ago Yale Hirsch, in his Stock Traders' Almanac, reported that the stock market gains on the first trading day of the month bested all the other days combined, although recently that has not exactly been the case. Point of fact, the 9th through 11th days have outpointed the last-through-fourth days.
First of all, we are trying to breach the 1,000 (triple-zero) mark on the S&P 500 that we last saw in October '08; even though breadth of market is incredibly strong, due to the copious cash on the sidelines (some say $5 Trillion), and low competitive rates on fixed income, at some point at least a correction is due. With the McClellan Oscillator (adjusted) at 50 and the Summation over 1,000, coupled with the Bullish Per Cent at a recent high of 73, these limits are getting stretched.
The most extreme Indicator this week is the Insider Selling ratio (that many kids going to college?) at 61 to 1, although the decade high of 108 was at the "flag" pause in April. This does not bode well for future corporate profitability.
Finally, newsletter surveys are the most Bullish in recent months (Bearish FOR the market).
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 7/31/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 9171………9093.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1978………1965…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 987…………979………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …58…………..66……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 25.9………..23.1…….…….90…….….8.8

McClellan Osc………50…………..72…………..108……..(-100) McClelSum…………..1115………855………..…....1568-....-1514

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…42.2……….36.7………….…63 ……...22.2l

Bear:………… 31.1……….35.6…………… 54.4.......16-

AAII-Bull/Bear ……47.7/31.4….37.6/42.4…….…..n/a

Nova/Ursa

MutualFunds………0.90………..0.94…………….2.2……..0.56

Baltic Dry

Index ……3350……….3345………….11700………663

Bullish%- …….…73………….68………….…88…….....2

*Insider corporate

sellers. 61:1………..48:1……………108:1…….2.4:1

Mutual Fund Inflows .. 1.2B……. 1.5B……

ETF InflowsL……… 4.2B……. (1.3B)…..

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

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