Market Sentiment - A Contrarian View

This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different timeframes; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments,thanks to Haloscan, just click on "comments" and write away.

Monday, October 26, 2009

HALLOWE'EN , PART TWO:

Today's Sentiment posting is in 2 parts, as the new system requires special handling - so here is the commentary for Oct.26:
The stock market has more legs than the Fox Channel, despite today's month-end profit-taking. Although most all foreign money is going into bonds (Treasurys, GSEs, etc.) Trillions are still looking for a home above zero percent, especially with the safety that the U.S. provides.
According to the latest JP Morgan Quarterly booklet in the 4 great Recessions the past century with consecutive declines in the market, all saw highdouble-digit or triple-digit returns following the trough: 
Great Depression - down 71%, up 148%
WWII - down 34%, up 100%
1974 Oil Crisis - down 42%, up 57%
Internet Bubble - down 42%, up 67% into 2007
Breadth remains huge,with New Highs outnumbering New Lows on the NYSE 713 to 8!
CEO Insider Selling remains worrisome at 22:1 and the Investors Intelligence Bulls are complacently high at 49; yet the McClellan Oscillator is at its support level of -50.