YEAR-END REBALANCE:

Now seems a good time of year to look at the Sentiment Indicators and do some rebalancing: it seems that Barron's/NYSE is charging institutional fees for some data, so the diminishing Specialist to Public shorting is going the way of the P-Coast option market makers (in favor of electronic trading); added to the list, for now, is the very high Market Vane Bullish T-Bond number, at 91, which would at some point be Bearish for Treasuries. Also noted this week, the Baltic Dry Index is repeated at 818, a suspect number possibly due to indolence.
During this holiday, low-Volume period, most extremes are coming off their highs to the mean; the McClellan Oscillator remains Bearish - still above 50; yet the Inv. Intell. bull/bear ratio remains "bearly" inverted - a Bullish sign.
Most of us are just waiting for this dismal year to end, and hope that the "Change" is for the better!

MktSentiment. 12/26/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8515…….8579………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1530…… 1564…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 872……… 888………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……60………… 72………..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 43…………46…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………51……………58……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-377………..-509……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…35.1………….26.9……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 38.2…………47.3……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……29.0/43.6…..39.7/35.6…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..91………….91……………..91
Baltic Dry Index ……818?…………818…………………………………663
Public/NYSE Spec.-…discont. n/a (pay svc).. … …….……22-10/08…………9.5
Bullish%- …….…54…………….60……………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 5.4:1…..4.8:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows (1.3B)………(7.8B)
ETF InflowsL……….7.6B……….16.2B……
Money Market Inflows: 28B……….(2B)… … ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

YEAR-END REBALANCE: