With the NYSE advance/declines at 10:1 last week and the Nasdaq new lows to highs at 10:1, we could go either way in this Obama honeymoon/nightmare. The McClellan Oscillator hit a new high of 108 (overbought); the Bullish per cent went on a buy signal at 63, but is getting toppy, and the Inv. Intell. Bulls/Bears went to dead even, while the AAII ratio is still very cautious.
The new Market Vane Bond Bullish number presaged the recent drop in Treas. at 91, now 89. This could be the next safety Bubble, now or later.
Insider selling and SDS (short SPX etf) volumes are quite low, partially due to the holidays.
Sentimentrader.com reports mutual fund cash rose higher than money in equity funds for the first time, after being only 48% a year ago. Also the AAII has an even balance at 42% cash (highest ever)/42% stocks.
Worries ahead: commercial real estate is beginning to implode (malls, hotels, etc.); heretofore safe mortgages are beginning a 2-year reset agenda, and, as Niall Ferguson of the excellent book The Ascent of Money reports - the Fed is now margined at 50:1! Sound familiar?
MktSentiment. 1/02/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 9034………..8515………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1632………. 1530…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 931………..872………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……63………….60………..…96-10/08….....46-1/03
VIX ………. 39…………43…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear
McClellan Osc………108nh……….51……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-87………….-377……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…38.5………….35.1……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 38.5…………38.2……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……24.0/54.7……29.0/43.6…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..89………….91……………..91
Baltic Dry Index ……773………….818…………………………………663
Public/NYSE Spec.-…discont. n/a (pay svc).. … …….……22-10/08…………9.5
Bullish%- …….…63buy………….54……………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 3.0:1……5.4:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows ..(1.8B)……….(1.3B)
ETF InflowsL………(1.1B)………7.6B……
Money Market Inflows: 18B……….28B… ………144B
www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
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