Monday, December 8, 2008

BULL**** PER CENT?:

The usually reliable Bullish per cent Pt.& Fig. indicator, which uses the material 1-point, 3-Box reversal for its trend changes, falls victim to the record Volatility of this market the past 3 months. It has, however, kept one in the trend, and hopefully will predict, by using a 45-degree down trending tops line, showing us a downside reversal at @46% (it is currently at 36%-Buy).
After a 100-pt. SPX rally in December, despite the money thrown at ubiquitous financial problems, it should be getting tired even in a year-end rally.
Although the newsletter surveys, through gloomy Wednesday, are tremendously bullish for the market, the McClellan Oscillator at 64 calls for overbought selling, and the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping hits another new low causing huge discount cuts accross Europe. Public to NY Specialist shorting hit another new low last week at 13:1.
Here are the stats:

MktSentiment. 12/05/08 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8635…….. 8829………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1509…..…1535…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 876……….896………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …… 75………….63………..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 60…………55…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………64…………….73……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-1089……….-1362……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…23.1…………..31.3……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 49.5………….44.1…..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
Baltic Dry Index ……663nl…….715…………………………………................663
AAII-Bull/Bear ………31.3/44.9….24.4/57.1…....……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-… 13.0nl……… 13.7nl… …….……22-10/08…………13.0
Bullish%- …….…31………….…8………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 4.0…… 2.4:1nl…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows (2.5B)……….(7.1B)
ETF InflowsL……….2.8B………….4.5B……
Money Market Inflows: 28B………...38B… … ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

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