Monday, October 2, 2006


Here we are on the first day of the new week, month, and quarter - even a new fiscal year for the Federal Government, and we flatline the market. The market is usually up 74% of the time on the first day of the month, and our newly high DJIA cannot even close on the plus side.
Now that Sept. defied Conventional Wisdom by rallying into the EOQ, does that invert all other rationale, including the 4-year cycle?
With a new high the Bulls are returning, in the form of UBS Confidence rising from 53% to 74; the AAII gap widened further (with the Inv.Intell. unchanged); not yet Bearish are the put/call ratios, Bullish per cent -63- , and Barron's Panic indicator, while the Trannies and Utils are not confirming the Dow Industrials, nor are most of the other indices ( the NAZ hasn't even come back to 50% of its 5000 mark).
Here are the Indicators as we enter the final quarter:

Mktsentiment.blogspot 9/27/2006 4Yr.HI LOW
DJIA 11679 11577 7286
Nasdaq 2258 2243 1114
S&P500 1335 1325 776

CBOE Equity
put/call ratio 66 87-5/04 46-1/03

VIX 12. 44 9/02 10.3-7/05

ISEE-call/put 80 9-12/04 82-4/02

McClel Osc.(+75/-100) -2 91-5/04 (81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000) 739 1568-6/03 (726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:62/28 47.4 62.9-12/04 35-6/06
Bear:43.2/16.1--5yrs 33.7 38.2-3/03 16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear 51.3 /32.9 n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls 71 73 24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx -0.64 -0.24 4/06 -0.75 11/05

Bullish%- 63 88 -2/04 46-8/04

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