Monday, September 25, 2006


With just a few days until the end of the 3rd Quarter, the Indicators are unusually benign, with a couple of exceptions.
Although the (small sample) statistic that 15 out 18 of the last post-expiry weeks in
September were down (make that 16 of 19, now) held true, it was rather minimal. And although the index charts look like they are rolling over, momentum oscillators included, the Bullish per cent remains on a Buy signal, and New Highs vs. New Lows have also been strong.
The McClellan charts both show negative action, with the Summation high and toppy - the Oscillator -20 and descending.
Newsletter surveys became more negative with wider spreads between Bulls and Bears, and the Market Vane hit 70 (Bulls).
My newly followed indicators, the commitment of traders, is going crazy: the previous week the Commercial Hedgers net change rose 10-fold over normal, and this past week it doubled that to the downside, while the change of small and large traders fell heavily.
Possibly this portends the widely anticipated V-spike typical of the Sept.-Oct. period in a
mid-election year.Below are the Indicators:

Mktsentiment.blogspot 9/22/2006 4Yr.HI LOW
DJIA 11508 11577 7286
Nasdaq 2218 2243 1114
S&P500 1314 1325 776

CBOE Equity 67 87-5/04 46-1/03
put/call ratio

VIX 12.6 44-9/02 10.3-7/05

ISEE-call/put 130 299-12/04 82-4/02

McClel Osc.(+75/-100) -20 91-5/04 (81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000) 709 1568-6/03 (726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:62/28 47.4 62.9-12/04 35-6/06
Bear:43.2/16.1--5yrs 33.7 38.2-3/03 16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear 47.8/34.2 n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls 70 73 24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx -0.63 -0.24 4/06 -0.75 11/05

Bullish%- 56 88 -2/04 46-8/04

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