Monday, October 30, 2006

THE PAUSE THAT REFRESHES:

After a 4-month straightup Dow, it seems like we may at least go sideways, at least until after the elections next week. Whether the excess liquiduty that has confounded seasonal history came from lower oil/gas, a renewal of Japan's carry-trade, or corporate share buybacks, it seems the housing crash has not hurt stocks, as of yet.
With the levelling off, some of the excessive sentiment readings have backed off, such as the CBOE put/call ratio, VIX, Panic/ Euphoria,Specialist shorts,and AAII survey.Still indicating a potential downturn are the McClellan Summation, now crossing over 1000, Bullish per cent at a high of 74, and finally, the Nova/Ursa waking up from its single-digit bullishness up to the 15 mark it saw at May's top. Here are the numbers:

Mktsentiment. 10/27/2006......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA 12090...........11577...........7286
Nasdaq 2350............2243............1114
S&P500 1377............1325............776
CBOE Equity put/call 61.............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX 10.8.........44 9/02........10.3-7/05

ISEE-call/put 161...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100) 7...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000) 1005...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:62/28 52.7...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:43.2/16.1--5yrs 30.1.........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear 52.2/30.4.....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls 73......... 73..............24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx -0.57........-0.24 4/06.....-0.75 11/05

Bullish%- 74...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04

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