Wednesday, August 9, 2006


The double bottom liftoffs, after the May deluge, came in mid-June and mid-July; preceding these were some discrete record high numbers in one statistic I follow - Public vs. NYSE Specialists' shorting. A short term indicator of Public panic, these were at 7.26 (a new high) on the June 6 week end, and 7.84 on June 30, also a new high. Last week this number jumped from 5.66 to 6.93.
Also slightly Bullish is the small narrowing of the Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear spread (more Bears, fewer Bulls) and the widening of the Inverted AAII spread (same result).
See the grid below for other minor changes:

8/4/06 4Yr.HI LOW
DJIA 10240 11577 7286
Nasdaq 2085 2243 1114
S&P500 1279 1325 776
CBOE Equity 65 87-5/04 46-1/03put/call ratio
VIX 14.3 44-9/02 10.3-7/05
ISEE-call/put 116 299-12/04 82-4/02(>200/Bearish)
McClel Osc.(+75/-100) 30 91-5/04 (81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000)` 200 1568-6/03 (726)-5/04
Newsletter Surveys:Inv.Intel -
Bull: 41.5 62.9-12/04 35-6/06
Bear: 36.2 38.2-3/03 16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear 31.5/47.2 n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls 62 73 24
Barron's Panic/Euphoric Master Idx -0.56 -0.24 4/06 -0.75 11/05
Bullish%- (.82%/12%): 53 88 -2/04 46-8/04

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