Monday, August 14, 2006


Since November 2005 the DJIA has risen less than 200 points - a 1-day climb. It has moved sideways( except one moment of irrational exuberance last May) in a 600 point Trading Range from 10,700 to 11,300. As always, the question is whether this has been Re-accumulation or Distribution.
The fact that we broke some major technical Support Trendlines, including a rising diagonal trend in May, coupled with the worst time of year, historically, for stocks, the Intermediate picture looks bleak.
Short term, however, many Sentiment Indicators have been stretched to the Positive levels, including the Citicorp Panic Index at -0.68, the lowest in several months, and at a level where previous rallies started ( last Spring and last Fall).
Also short term is the CBOE put/call ratio at 76, and the Inv.Intell. survey, narrowing even farther to 40 Bull and 37 Bears.

Mktsentiment.blogspot 8/11/2006 4Yr.HI LOW
DJIA 11088 11577 7286
Nasdaq 2057 2243 1114
S&P500 1266 1325 776

CBOE Equity 76 87-5/04 46-1/03
put/call ratio

VIX 14.3 44-9/02 10.3-7/05

ISEE-call/put 112 299-12/04 82-4/02

McClel Osc.(+75/-100) -7 91-5/04 (81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000)` 222 1568-6/03 (726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:62/28 40.2 62.9-12/04 35-6/06
Bear:43.2/16.1--5yrs 37.1 38.2-3/03 16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear 36.6/41.5 n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls 62 73 24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx -0.68 -0.24 4/06 -0.75 11/05

Bullish%- (82%/12%) 50 88 -2/04 46-8/04.

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