Monday, July 31, 2006


For the past few weeks that I've been watching money flow of mutual funds I've noticed that ETF Volume zigs while mutual funds zag. Per AMG Data, last week, for example, inflows were $1.4B, although ex-ETF funds it was almost a Billion outflow. I still remember shortly after I broke into this game that fund outflows were the rule for most of 1988, after the '87 Crashette, while the market was slowly rising.

Looking at the matrix below, notable extremes are: McClellan Osc. at its 50 Resistance level (52) and the Summation looks to break up thru the zero line even with the market down today.

Banking stocks and Utilities are hitting new highs and breadth last week was positive (5:1), with the weaker Nasdaq only 2:1. Odd lot shorting was up 50% from the previous week.Both the Panic Index and Bullish Per Cent slipped lower (bullish), but Market Vane is up to 62% Bulls. This could portend a slight hiatus.

Mktsentiment.blogspot 7/28/2006 4Yr.HI LOW
DJIA 11219 11577 7286
Nasdaq 2094 2243 1114
S&P500 1278 1325 776

CBOE Equity 58 87-5/04 46-1/03
put/call ratio

VIX 14.3 44-9/02 10.3-7/05

ISEE-call/put 96 299-12/04 82-4/02

McClel Osc.(+75/-100) 52 91-5/04 (81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000)`-21 1568-6/03 (726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:62/28 42.2 62.9-12/04 35-6/06
Bear:43.2/16.1--5yrs 34.5 38.2-3/03 16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear 34.9/43 n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls 62 73 24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx -0.55 -0.24 4/06 -0.75 11/05

Bullish%- .82%/12% 49 88 -2/04 46-8/04

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