Monday, August 14, 2017


August's second half and September are the worst time of year for the Stock Market - will the Fed keep raising rates to fight no imminent Inflation? We finally got a shot across the bow last week with a market downdraft of more than 1%, but have rallied almost all the way back in a retracement - the McClellan Oscillator gave us the clue at minus 69 (below 50), and the CBOE put/call option ratio spiked to 81 as the VIX almost doubled. MMFs flows jumped up from mutual funds, and NYSE Breadth was terrible. See below:

Date   8/11/2017 8/4/2017
Indices: DJIA  21858 22092
  NAZ  6256 6351
SPX  2441 2476
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.5/4.0 9.7/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.38 2.26
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  81 68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.5 10
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 60 66.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 561/2527 1522/1546
Weekly Net: -1966 -24
     Cumulative: 177913 179879
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 259/231 388/131
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 244/297 298/216
McClellan  Oscillator -69 -13
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 460 711
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 57.5 60
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17 16.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  33.7 36.1
Bear  32.3 32.1
US$-WSJ 93.1 93.4
3-box rev Bullish%-  67 69
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weeklate (3.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B 30B 20.4B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.19 2.26
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.29 1.35
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.7 113.6

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