Memorial Day - Forgetable Week

Despite record highs in the DJIA and SPX (S&P 500) last week, most Sentiment Indicators were well within their zones. Only standout (due to the above records) was the VIX, which slipped down below 12, to 11.4. Looking at short and long term charts of the VIX, this level was usually followed shortly by a sharp upturn within a few days - meaning a correction of some measure should be in the offing - possibly after the first day of the month, which is traditionally the biggest up day of any month (??).

Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/23/2014	5/16/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16606	16491
	NAZ	4185	4090
	SPX	1900	1877
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.4/3.0	9.2/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.8	2.71
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.4	12.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2107/1115	1694/1505
Weekly Net:		992	189
Cumulative:		161013	160021
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	290/78	300/91
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	111/156	122/216
McClellan	Oscillator	15	-15
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	747	770
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	57.2	55.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	18.3	19.4
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	30.3	33.1
	Bear	26.4	22.6
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	8k/8k	12k/10k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(106K)	(102k)
CEOinsider	selling	17::1	15:1finance
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	160:20	160:40
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(2.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(3.9B)	(3.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	450B	MAR.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1049/401/259	MAR.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.35%	0.36%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Memorial Day - Forgetable Week

MISSING ACCOMPLISHED

In observance of my weekly vacation the markets went on a wild ride last week, with the S&P 500 (SPX) going from a Friday-to-Friday close of 1878 all the way to ......1878! Most all of the Sentiment Indicators were on hold, midrange with another holiday on the horizon.
Apparently the Sell in May crowd also spread to the Buy in May crowd, both taking the week off , with this week looking the same. Even the Insider sellers slowed down their selling.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/16/2014	5/9/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16491	16583
	NAZ	4090	4138
	SPX	1877	1884
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	9.2/3.4	10.2/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.71	3
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.4	12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1694/1505	1527/1693
Weekly Net:		189	-166
Cumulative:		160021	159832
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	300/91	322/137
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	122/216	103/303
McClellan	Oscillator	-15	16
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	770	827
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	55.1	55.8
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	19.4	19.7
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	33.1	28.3
	Bear	22.6	28.7
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	12k/10k	8k/15k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(102k)	(110k)
CEOinsider	selling	15:1finance	18:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	160:40	150:50
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	72
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(3.1B)	16B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		MAR
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		MAR
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.36%	0.39%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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MISSING ACCOMPLISHED

BETTER LATE THAN NEVER

After a scintillating vacation into the hills (Lake Tahoe) cum snow, etc., and a Birthday celebration (76 today) I'm ready to catch up.

Not much happened last week in Sentiment although the market did its usual volatile swing. Following through with new highs the technicals are getting Bullish - I usually use 3 closes above previous highs/Resistance, so we're not ready to jump in with both feet.
Insider selling has abated, mutual fund flows show a return to MMFs (money markets), but commercial future traders in Gold still show large selling, although word is China is buying Gold.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/9/2014	5/2/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16583	16512
	NAZ	4138	4123
	SPX	1884	1881
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	10.2/3.4	10.2/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3	2.62
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	68	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.9	12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1527/1693	2168/1047
Weekly Net:		-166	1121
Cumulative:		159832	159998
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	322/137	319/99
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	103/303	136/221
McClellan	Oscillator	16	16
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	827	842
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	55.8	54.7
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	19.7	20.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	28.3	29.8
	Bear	28.7	29.4
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	8k/15k	14k/14k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(110k)	(98k)
CEOinsider	selling	18:1	40:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	150:50	150:25
3-box rev	Bullish%-	72	69
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	16B	(10B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	MAR	450B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	MAR	1049/401/259
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.39%	0.43%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BETTER LATE THAN NEVER

Early (Vacation) Edition

Most Sentiment (and Breadth) Indicators remained placid last week as the more new highs were reached. VIX dropped into the 12 handle; in the Commitment of Traders, for the second week in a row the Large traders net volume and Small ones were exactly even - no signal there! Even the AAII Bull/Bears were tied at 29%.

Commercial gold sellers remain huge as do Insider sellers of stocks, both at t he sector level and board/officer individual numbers. Margin interest actually  dropped for the first time in months, but this is not a significant figure, due to low rates, which seem to be with us through the decade, per Levy Forecast in Barron's today.  

For more, see:  http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/2/2014	4/25/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16512	16361
	NAZ	4123	4075
	SPX	1881	1863
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	10.2/3.9	9.3/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.62	2.82
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.9	14.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2168/1047	1698/1517
Weekly Net:		1121	181
Cumulative:		159998	158877
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	319/99	313/49
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	136/221	165/100
McClellan	Oscillator	16	-2
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	842	798
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	54.7	51.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.6	21.7
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	29.8	34.5
	Bear	29.4	26
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	14k/14k	11k/12k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(98k)	(90k)
CEOinsider	selling	40:1	48:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	150:25	200:35
3-box rev	Bullish%-	69	68
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	1.4B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(10B)	7.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	450B	466B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1049/401/259	1035/397/266
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.43%	0.43%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Early (Vacation) Edition

"BEAR" WITH ME

Just as President Reagan said "Trust, But Verify" , that is how the stock market feels right now. Heading into the lesser semi-annual cycle (May through October), and with the May - June period especially vulnerable (like October) in a mid-term election year, I would not be un-hedged these days. Stocks cannot seem to rise to new highs, especially the Nasdaq/tech stocks. "Legal" Insiders are still selling bigtime (see below-officers and board members at 200 sales, up from 150 the prior week).
The newsletter surveys resumed their Bullish slant (from the inverted one); gold commercial sellers still remain high, although off the peak. ETF flows and margin debt monthly figures should be out next week - in my earlier report, as I shall be off on vacation.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/25/2014	4/18/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16361	16408
	NAZ	4075	4062
	SPX	1863	1864
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	9.3/3.3	8.0/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.82	**2.66
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.1	13.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1698/1517	2394/812
Weekly Net:		181	1582
Cumulative:		158877	158696
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	313/49	190/86
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	165/100	94/185
McClellan	Oscillator	-2	14
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	798	696
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.6	50.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	21.7	20.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	34.5	27.2
	Bear	26	34.3
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	11k/12k	8k/18k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(90k)	(88k)
CEOinsider	selling	48:1	11:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	200:35	150:6/15*
3-box rev	Bullish%-	68	66
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	6.4B
MMF flows	Change in $B	7.3B	(35.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	466B	FEB.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1035/397/266	FEB.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.43%	0.40%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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"BEAR" WITH ME

Hallelujah! It Has Risen

Sector totals of Insider Selling dropped precipitously to only 11 to 1 Sellers (from 68:1 the week prior); while the newly found records of "smart" Insiders - Board members, Officers dropped to 150 sales, while 10% share holders  reversed to more Buyers than Sellers! Per my Sentiment blog: http://mktsentiment.blogspot.com, MMFs (Money Markets) are shedding dollars again and Equity funds are gradually picking up, per ICI. The AAII Bears inverted over the Bulls again - a Bullish contrarian sign

- although the Investors Intell. - Wire house advisory letters- were still complacent. In my studies of the two for my CMT designation on Sentiment, I found the AAII more accurate- from a Contrary point of view.  

Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/18/2014	4/11/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16408	16026
	NAZ	4062	3999
	SPX	1864	1815
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.0/3.0	11.3/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		**2.66	2.9
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	57	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.4	17
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2394/812	975/2241
Weekly Net:		1582	-1266
Cumulative:		158696	157114
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	190/86	134/78
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	94/185	79/157
McClellan	Oscillator	14	-48
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	696	717
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50.5	54.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.6	18.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	27.2	28.5
	Bear	34.3	34.1
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	8k/18k	12k/20k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(88k)	(102k)
CEOinsider	selling	11:1	68:1?
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	150:6/15*	180:15
3-box rev	Bullish%-	66	66
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	2.1B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(35.0B)	(17.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	FEB.	466B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	FEB.	1035/397/266
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.40%	0.36%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

Hallelujah! It Has Risen

RED MOON AT NIGHT

To paraphrase the wayfarers' saying:  Red Sky At  Night- Sailors' Delight, weird things happen in April and October. These are moon-based events - eclipses every 6 months, when we get earthquakes, market crashes. With the human body a high % liquid, the moon has a gravity pull - hence "lunatic".
Maybe this will precipitate a much-needed correction in the stock market, especially Nas and tech stocks.
Not much new in the Sentiment area, although Insider Selling by Industry group (although several n/as in there) actually doubled from the week before - 34 to 68 to 1. My favorite predictor, the McClellan Oscillator did fall to -48, just two points away from my usual BUY signal of minus 50 - hence the rally today!
Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/11/2014	4/4/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16026	16412
	NAZ	3999	4127
	SPX	1815	1865
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	11.3/3.9	10.9/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.9	3.03
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		17	13.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		975/2241	2130/1063
Weekly Net:		-1266	1067
Cumulative:		157114	158380
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	134/78	389/30
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	79/157	258/103
McClellan	Oscillator	-48	-10
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	717	837
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	54.6	50.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	18.6	18.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	28.5	35.4
	Bear	34.1	26.8
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	12k/20k	9k/21k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(102k)	(114k)
CEOinsider	selling	68:1?	34:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	180:15	175:30
3-box rev	Bullish%-	66	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	.9B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(17.7B)	(13.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	466B	FEB.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1035/397/266	FEB.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.36%	0.42%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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RED MOON AT NIGHT