Monday, April 28, 2014


Just as President Reagan said "Trust, But Verify" , that is how the stock market feels right now. Heading into the lesser semi-annual cycle (May through October), and with the May - June period especially vulnerable (like October) in a mid-term election year, I would not be un-hedged these days. Stocks cannot seem to rise to new highs, especially the Nasdaq/tech stocks. "Legal" Insiders are still selling bigtime (see below-officers and board members at 200 sales, up from 150 the prior week).
The newsletter surveys resumed their Bullish slant (from the inverted one); gold commercial sellers still remain high, although off the peak. ETF flows and margin debt monthly figures should be out next week - in my earlier report, as I shall be off on vacation.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 4/25/2014 4/18/2014
Indices: DJIA  16361 16408
  NAZ  4075 4062
SPX  1863 1864
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 9.3/3.3 8.0/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.82 **2.66
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.1 13.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1698/1517 2394/812
Weekly Net: 181 1582
     Cumulative: 158877 158696
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 313/49 190/86
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 165/100 94/185
McClellan  Oscillator -2 14
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 798 696
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 51.6 50.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 21.7 20.6
AAII  -Bull :wed. 34.5 27.2
Bear  26 34.3
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 11k/12k 8k/18k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (90k) (88k)
CEOinsider selling 48:1 11:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 200:35 150:6/15*
3-box rev Bullish%-  68 66
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 6.4B
MMF flows Change in $B 7.3B (35.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  466B FEB.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1035/397/266 FEB.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.43% 0.40%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader


No comments:

Post a Comment