Monday, January 30, 2017

20 K - SO WHAT

It took 50 years for the DJIA to grow from 1,000 (in 1966) to now, for an average annual gain of 2.5%; Before that it grew from 40 at its inception in 1896 (if memory serves) to 1,000 - 70 years, at a rate of 2.8%. Big Deal, especially considering the addition in 2004 of the FANG-type stocks and the Fed led rally from '09, which makes the chart look parabolically dangerous.
Also parabolic is the chart of Insider Selling in Barron's this week, although that correlation to market movement is not very tight (Insider Buying is better.
Also Fake News - if adjusted for Inflation, the Nasdaq should be around 7,000, not 5,600 if you use 40% compounded Infl. from the year 2000.

Outstanding numbers for last week's Sentiment columns below were still the margin debt (second highest since 1930); AAII Bears outnumbered the Bulls % for the first time in awhile, and the $$ flowed dramatically from equity funds back into MMFs week over week. Finally, NYSE new highs to lows broke the 10:1 ratio.

Date   1/27/2017 1/20/2017
Indices: DJIA  20093 19827
  NAZ  5660 5555
SPX  2294 2271
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.8/4.1 6.9/3.4*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.15 2.03
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.6 11.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 72.9 74.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2115/994 1222/1869
Weekly Net: 1121 -647
     Cumulative: 173082 171961
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 498/41 213/42
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 464/108 231/79
McClellan  Oscillator 3 -8
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 682 627
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 58.2 60.6
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.5 17.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  31.6 37
Bear  33.5 32.7
US$-WSJ 100.5 100.8
3-box rev Bullish%-  73 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (3.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B 19.7B (24.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  500B NOV.
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.5 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114 113.7

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