Monday, December 12, 2016


So They (everyone) Say! The Trump Market will rise to at least 20,000 in the next 6 months! But not straight up. At a recent TSAA (technical analysts' society) annual luncheon, veteran analyst, teacher, and partner with Martin Pring -Bruce Fraser-, gave a talk on the markets. Although he did not say we were near a top, the charts he showed were convincing that a possible cessation might occur: a "Broadening top in the SPX looks to make a 5-wave triangle, and the Co-dependence of stocks to Bonds shows an offset top occurring.
The Investors' Intelligence Bull/Bear reached a 3 X Bull dominance (complacency) - a rarity! 59 to 19. Advance/Declines were 4 to 1 and New highs on the Nasdaq hit a record 700+ to 100. Also, the Volumes showed a large increase in NAS to NYSE (also speculative) The McClellan Oscillator hit +50 (my short term sell signal, which proved again today, at least for the NAS and SPX). We shall find out in the Fullness of Time.

Here are last week's numbers:

Date 12/9/2016 12/2/2016
Indices: DJIA  19786 19170
NAZ  5444 5255
SPX  2259 2191
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.0/4.6 9.4/5.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.17 1.71
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  53 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.8 14.1
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 64% 66%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2451/666 1026/2098
Weekly Net: 1785 -1075
     Cumulative: 171682 169897
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 676/94 462/178
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 788/120 536/144
McClellan  Oscillator 50 3
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 345 110
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 58.8 56.3
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 19.6 22.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  43.1 43.8
Bear  26.5 25.1
US$-WSJ 101.6 100.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  68 65
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 2.8B
MMF flows Change in $B 16.9B 13.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  OCT. n/a
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.47% 2.39%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.14% 1.10%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.8 113.1

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