Monday, October 24, 2016


So where's the Hillary Rally? By a wide margin, when the Incumbent party is polled to win the upcoming Presidential Election, the stock market rallies - since August 15 (2 months ago) it has been in a shallow but steady decline of nearly 2%.
 For the first time, my newly added Sentiment Indicator, the Delta SMI, went below 50, a Bearish sign for rising stocks; also new, the Nasdaq New Lows beat New Highs for the week. Stocks were actually slightly UP on the week, but on Low Volume, a technical divergence. Normally this time of year stocks start a rally into February, but the outlook for Bonds does not look good as rates start to climb higher (Prices lower).
Here are the results:
Date>   10/21/2016 10/14/2016
Indices: DJIA  18145 18138
  NAZ  5257 5214
SPX  2141 2132
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.7/3.9 8.0/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.97 2.05
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.3 16.1
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 48% 55%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1968/1151 1003/2132
Weekly Net: 835 -1129
     Cumulative: 170963 170128
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 185/70 202/79
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 165/190 226/186
McClellan  Oscillator -5 -49
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 135 217
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 42.9 46.1
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 23.8 23.1
Wed. AAII  -Bull  23.7 25.5
Bear  37.8 33.7
US$-WSJ 98.6 98.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  61 63
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (3.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B (13.5B) (6.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  AUG:
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.74% 1.80%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.83% 0.84%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116.1 115.6

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