Monday, May 11, 2015


Just when I take my usual two week vacation - to the real Casinos in Lake Tahoe- the market starts to get frisky (aka Volatile). Last week saw three big down days, followed by the Invisible Hand huge rally on Friday. Longer term, the DJIA (30) has been on a tear for 3 1/2 years with nary a major correction. As a technical analyst I prefer to look at charts, rather than listen to talking heads disagreeing on what economic event caused the action. What we used to call looking at photos of the markets (before High Freqs started PhotoShopping them) now show a tightening or coil in the price ranges, although Bullishly breaking to new highs - even without the Fed (??).

As some of you readers know I have been writing a sentiment blog since 2004, based on the Indicators I studied for my Chartered Market Technician designation. After halting my journalistic efforts on the and Marina Times, I started popping the column up on Facebook. Kindly, none of my family and friends have complained or delisted me (defriended??), but I decided to stop Spamming everyone and encouraging interested persons to check out my Monday blog:, or even sign up for it. The column will resume after my return from vaca!

I've used it to try to boil down what I consider recent meaningful research (Barron's, Mauldin,, as well as the above Sentiment Indicators, such as put/call ratios, newsletter opinions, etc.
The extremes last week (not many from the prior week) were a Bullish reading from the AAII (Individual Investor) where - as you can see below- Bulls and Bears were tied. Margin interest hit new highs (low interest rates could be dangerous), while Futures Traders (COT) smart money is shorting Oil and gold, but long stocks (SPX).
Here are the numbers:

Date> 5/8/2015 5/1/2015
Indices: DJIA  18191 18024
  NAZ  5003 5005
SPX  2116 2108
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.8/3.9 10.0/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.51 2.33
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.9 12.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1379/1851 1046/2180
Weekly Net: -472 -1134
     Cumulative: 167766 168238
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 162/153 220/91
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 181/197 258/180
McClellan  Oscillator -10 -27
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 305 488
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 52.5 57.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 13.9 13.9
Wed. AAII  -Bull  27.1 30.8
Bear  26.8 22
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 10k/(26k) 11k/(17k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (74k) (107k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg long-short. (328k) (320k)
US$-WSJ 85.3 85.8
CEOinsider selling 40:1 NA
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160/40 .160/40
3-box rev Bullish%-  65 68
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (7.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B 8.6B (5.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  MARCH 476Bnh
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B MARCH 1268/472/318
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.58% 0.60%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.25 113.89

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