M'aidez, May Day

Help me... understand these paradoxes: "Experts" in weather prediction become less accurate the farther out in time they opine; the same is true of Economists (remember the saying- "you can lay all the world's Economists end to end and they would never reach an agreement!". However, studies show that the farther out in time Investors choose, the better their returns.  Contrary to my Technical/short term experience of thirty years, passive investors excel. In other words, sloth and ignorance beats effort and intelligence!!

I recently saw a chart from Schwab showing over 40 years the Stalwart who remained in the market investing annually earned $1,600,000 as of 2013; the  Reactor, bailing after 1987 and 2000 earned $1,063,000 and the Waffler, getting out after each major correction, earned less than $1,000,000! And that does not include DCA, or Dollar Cost Averaging, (buying at the bottoms) which would compound even much more.

So even though the shorter time that "average" traders employ renders the worst profits, the CBOE decides that in a few weeks or so Weekly expiration options will be available on the VIX - just like many stocks and indices. Hoo Haa.

 In the Sentiment area two records were set last week - neither very good predictors of market direction: the monthly figures for March showed new highs in ETFs buying - for stocks, bonds and int'l; also a record was margin interest, after backing off recently. Also high, but slow to predict, was Insider Selling, both by CEOs and all Insiders.

Money continues to flow OUT of MMFs and managed MUFunds (mutual); and commercial shorts increased yet again on both Gold and Oil, although both have acted well recently. Technicians can find a high correlation between the Dollar topping mid-March and Oil bottoming.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/1/2015	4/24/2015
Indices:	DJIA	18024	18080
	NAZ	5005	5092
	SPX	2108	2117
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	10.0/4.3	8.7/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.33	2.35
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.7	12.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1046/2180	2215/1009
Weekly Net:		-1134	1206
Cumulative:		168238	168248
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	220/91	266/42
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	258/180	313/112
McClellan	Oscillator	-27	13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	488	568
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	57.4	52.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	13.9	15.2
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	30.8	31.5
	Bear	22	23.2
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	11k/(17k)	11k/(14k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(107k)	(105k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg	long-short.	(320k)	-325
US$-WSJ		85.8	86.4
CEOinsider	selling	NA	49:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	.160/40	.160:25
3-box rev	Bullish%-	68	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(3.4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(5.9B)	(6.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	476Bnh	March
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1268/472/318	March
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.60%	0.51%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.89	115.02

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

M'aidez, May Day