FED UP

Perhaps the cause of this new found Volatility in the markets in 2015 is that the Fed finally stopped driving them UP, forcing prudent investors into riskier assets. Even at triple the 2009 index levels, 300 points down, then up, seems pretty material. Maybe the Fed finally decided that, although the first ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) was needed, the multi-year extension was not effective. To diet is good, but to starve one's self to death is counter-productive!

After two market crashes since 2000, people want to avoid stocks and increase savings due to lower rates; if people are $aving, they are not $pending, ergo corporations are not expanding! Thus a sluggish Economy!

Last weeks flip-flops in Sentiment included the NYSE Advance/Decline - +900 to -600; therefore the McClellan Oscillator went from +20 to -20 as well, although the NYSE New Highs to Lows were almost 10:1 (see below). Commercial shorts in Gold expanded again, so no rise in sight; this week I also added COT OIL traders, with a heavily short position, and the US $, in a Wall St journal Index (not the basket one usually sees, which topped out recently. Finally, MMF (money market) flows were hugely negative. $$ flowing into ETFs outnumber managed mutual funds 15 to 1!

Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/17/2015	4/10/2015
Indices:	DJIA	17826	18057
	NAZ	4931	4995
	SPX	2081	2102
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.5/3.9	8.1/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.18	2.19
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	65	56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.9	12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1285/1942	2072/1155
Weekly Net:		-657	917
Cumulative:		167042	167699
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	258/34
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	294/102
McClellan	Oscillator	-20	23
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	536	495
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	50.5	50.4
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	13.9	14.2
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	32.1	28.7
	Bear	22.8	24.2
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	10k/(8k)	10k/(9k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(104k)	(108k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg	long-short.	-280
US$-WSJ		86.8
CEOinsider	selling	16:1	22:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	.150:20	.160:30
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(1.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(39B)	0
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.51%	0.56%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	115.49	113.95

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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FED UP