Monday, April 20, 2015


Perhaps the cause of this new found Volatility in the markets in 2015 is that the Fed finally stopped driving them UP, forcing prudent investors into riskier assets. Even at triple the 2009 index levels, 300 points down, then up, seems pretty material. Maybe the Fed finally decided that, although the first ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) was needed, the multi-year extension was not effective. To diet is good, but to starve one's self to death is counter-productive!

After two market crashes since 2000, people want to avoid stocks and increase savings due to lower rates; if people are $aving, they are not $pending, ergo corporations are not expanding! Thus a sluggish Economy!

Last weeks flip-flops in Sentiment included the NYSE Advance/Decline - +900 to -600; therefore the McClellan Oscillator went from +20 to -20 as well, although the NYSE New Highs to Lows were almost 10:1 (see below). Commercial shorts in Gold expanded again, so no rise in sight; this week I also added COT OIL traders, with a heavily short position, and the US $, in a Wall St journal Index (not the basket one usually sees, which topped out recently. Finally, MMF (money market) flows were hugely negative. $$ flowing into ETFs outnumber managed mutual funds 15 to 1!

Here are the numbers:

Date> 4/17/2015 4/10/2015
Indices: DJIA  17826 18057
  NAZ  4931 4995
SPX  2081 2102
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.5/3.9 8.1/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.18 2.19
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 56
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.9 12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1285/1942 2072/1155
Weekly Net: -657 917
     Cumulative: 167042 167699
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 258/34
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 294/102
McClellan  Oscillator -20 23
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 536 495
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 50.5 50.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 13.9 14.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32.1 28.7
Bear  22.8 24.2
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 10k/(8k) 10k/(9k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (104k) (108k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg long-short. -280
US$-WSJ 86.8
CEOinsider selling 16:1 22:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .150:20 .160:30
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B (39B) 0
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.51% 0.56%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.49 113.95

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