Monday, April 13, 2015

APRIL: Shower me the Money

No guarantees of future results of course, but it was reported that the 10 days following Income Tax Day has been positive for the stock market -so I checked. Going back to 2005 this is true, if only a few S&P points some years. Whether it is because of refunds, previously mentioned stock Buybacks as earnings season starts, one can only guess. Barron's also speaks of ETFs having to buy stocks- also a positive factor.

On the downside, every Rainbow must have Rain to produce it! Viewing the PBS program of the 1929 Crash, there are some similarities: It ran up 8 years after WWI (we are up 6 so far, tripling the March '09 low); Blind pools manipulated markets (HFTs?); the Economy slowed, but stocks rose.
Margin buying was at record levels.

Luckily there were warning signs - Corrections- which should be paid to attention to; either hedging or exiting.

The big difference between then and now, however, is the Sentiment. Everyone was in the markets then - shoeshine boys, cab drivers, etc. Last week, again, my Indicators only showed tepid levels:
With all markets barely below record levels, Volume last  week was average, as was the ratio of Nasdaq Volume to NYSE (speculative); option put to call ratio and the VIX were quiet; but Gold shorting by the Commercial traders (hedgers) went back up - not a good sign.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 4/10/2015 **4/2/2015
Indices: DJIA  18057 17763
  NAZ  4995 4886
SPX  2102 2066
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.1/3.7 **6.9/3.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.19 2.16
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  56 69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.9 14.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2072/1155 2145/1070
Weekly Net: 917 1075
     Cumulative: 167699 166782
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 261/57
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 237/125
McClellan  Oscillator 23 12
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 495 380
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 50.4 54.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 14.2 14.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  28.7 35.4
Bear  24.2 32
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 10k/(9k) 6k/(3k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (108k) (81k)
CEOinsider selling 22:1 25:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160:30 .160:30
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 70
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (3.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B 0 (47B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  465B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1280/457/320
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.56% 0.48%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.95 114.05


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader


No comments:

Post a Comment