Monday, March 9, 2015

Storm Clouds

Traders in the stock market may want to think about hedging or at least watching stocks closely - we've had a great runup for 6 years (first time in history?). Several smart people are echoing this - Bill Gross says we have plateau'd; Jim Bianco sees economy slowing short term - snowstorms, dock strikes, lower oil earnings. Earnings forecasts as as negative as 2008 !!; the PMI index (Purchasing managers ) as low as '09.

On the plus side - Steve Sears of Barron's echoes my thoughts of stocks rising as interest rates do - before, during and after; our friend from the north (Santa Rosa) Charles Biderman of Trim Tabs says a record stock buyback happened in Feb.

Sentiment-wise - Today's bounceback reaffirms my McClellan Oscillator oversold number at -47 (usually around minus fifty in this short term Advance/Decline chart calls for at least a bounce; Gold is still seeing huge short sellers, and the 2-year Treas. yield jumped to a near record of 0.73, but the TIPs dropped over two points.

Here are the numbers:
Date> 3/6/2015 2/27/2015
Indices: DJIA  17856 18132
  NAZ  4927 4963
SPX  2071 2104
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.3/3.8 9.2/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.45 2.49
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  6 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.2 13.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 843/2411 1714/1541
Weekly Net: -1568 173
     Cumulative: 165162 166730
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 362/98 419/55
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 308/125 343/98
McClellan  Oscillator -47 9
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 586 643
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 58.7 59.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 14.1 34.1
AAII  -Bull :wed. 39.8 45.4
Bear  23.4 20.3
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 2k/(22k) 2k/(16k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (123k) (136k)
CEOinsider selling  .71:1 .68:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160:35 .150:30
3-box rev Bullish%-  75 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 0
MMF flows Change in $B (18.6B) 10.3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  445B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1219/424/308
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.73% 0.63%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.97 114.06

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