Monday, March 30, 2015


Contrary (!) to Main Stream Media (MSM) reports about the market declining over 2% last week on news of Yemen, ISIS, etc., Barron's Streetwise clarifies things a bit with the fact that U.S. stock Buybacks were at record highs in 2014 and continue to do so - in fact, the $1/2T amount in 2014 was more than the mutual funds and ETFs combined! However, they reverse just weeks before each quarterly earnings reports (such as last week) and resume during. Also contributing is window dressing before each quarter ending.

Another interesting factoid in the contrary/sentiment realm is that the Long futures are nearly as high as before the last major decline - and Barron's opines that Oil could fall to the 20s before rallying again - observable, but not actionable, yet.

Last week Sentiment Indicators were again mixed - the CBOE put/call ratio said BUY at week's end (48 to 66); newsletter surveys, which come out early (Tues and Wed.) were complacent. Gold shorters continued to drop!! CEO Insider selling leapt from 24:1 up to 74 to 1. Typical during Income tax time. Finally, MMF (money markets) reversed on the decline from negative $19B to plus $17B.
Here are last week's numbers:
Date> 3/27/2015 3/20/2015
Indices: DJIA  17712 18127
  NAZ  4891 5026
SPX  2061 2108
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.0/3.8 9.7/5.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.37 1.83
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 48
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.1 13
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1212/2014 2515/745
Weekly Net: -802 1770
     Cumulative: 165707 166509
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 367/77 422/172
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 274/130 395/168
McClellan  Oscillator -12 22
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 357 369
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 56.6 52
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 14.1 14.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  38.4 27.2
Bear  24.4 31.5
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 10k/3k 11k/(56k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (53k) (57k)
CEOinsider selling 74:1 .24:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160:40 .160:30
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 72
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B 17B (19B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  445B Jan:
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1219/424/308 Jan:
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.60% 0.59%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.42 113.76

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