Monday, January 12, 2015

Exchanging Funds

According to Barron's last week, this iis the 9th year that funds have flowed from Mutual Funds to Index and ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) as most managed funds fail to even equal their benchmarks - which contain all stocks in that category - good and bad. A study shows that the higher the U.S interest rates, the higher the "Alpha" - which is the gain over and above the benchmarks (Beta). So despite being a contrarian, against the crowd, it appears that this is still the best and easiest way to invest.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) shows a departure from smart money and "dumb" (small traders) with large going negative, versus small up 25k. Also , it shows commercial gold shorters still very high, although it seems to be rising recently into the 12-handle.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 1/9/2015 1/2/2015
Indices: DJIA  17737 17833
NAZ  4704 4726
SPX  2044 2058
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.6/4.1 5.4/2.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.34 2.25
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.5 17.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1512/1748 1355/1893
Weekly Net: -236 -538
     Cumulative: 164418 164654
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 413/202 413/86
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 196/159 287/116
McClellan  Oscillator 0 6
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 323 376
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50.5 56.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.2 14.9
AAII  -Bull :wed. 41 51.7
Bear  27.7 19.3
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k (1k)/25k 7K/21K
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (123k) (105K)
CEOinsider selling .73:1 .17:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160:30 160:20
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 68
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B (18.6B) 19.4B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  NOV 457B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B NOV 1221/434/296
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.56% 0.68%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.08 112.73

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

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