Monday, January 5, 2015

Cinco de Anno

According to my Research there has Never been a down year in the 5th year of the Decennial (10-year) cycle for the DJIA. Other cycles (4-year Pres., 6-month complementary, etc.) also indicate a positive year, despite today's debacle and the 5-year Bull market.

Last week saw a rare decline in Advance/Decline stocks in the NYSE; Volume was slightly better than the previous Holiday week, which was the weakest of the year. Funnily enough, Insider trading, for the year end, was very mild - both buying and selling. Gold, however, remains heavily shorted - an harbinger of bad tidings for the intermediate future, with a strong U S, and US Dollar.
Here are last week's numbers:

Date> 1/2/2015 12/26/2014
Indices: DJIA  17833 18053
  NAZ  4726 4806
SPX  2058 2088
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 5.4/2.4 4.9/2.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.25 2.13
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 53
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.8 14.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1355/1893 2153/1068
Weekly Net: -538 1085
     Cumulative: 164654 165192
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 413/86 478/72
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 287/116 317/124
McClellan  Oscillator 6 36
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 376 306
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 56.4 52.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 14.9 15.8
AAII  -Bull :wed. 51.7 50.9
Bear  19.3 18.9
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 7K/21K n/a
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (105K) n/a
CEOinsider selling .17:1 31:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160:20 160:20
3-box rev Bullish%-  68 75
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B 19.4B 20.5B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  457B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1221/434/296
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.68% 0.74%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.73

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