Monday, June 2, 2014

Will June Swoon Soon?

The stock market is like Lance Armstrong - hopefully it ends better! With the Fed as EPO it just keeps moving higher by bits, wiping out most downturns intraday. Even most Sentiment Indicators are glassy-eyed, with the exception of the VIX - it has closed below 12 about the same number of days (5) as the S&P 500 (SPX) has been above the double-zero 1900; this aborted my filter of 3 days closing above Resistance, and bodes well for higher prices.

Still, we have to get through June, the mid-term election jinx month; notable extremes to Sentiment include the Inv. Intell. Bull/Bear ratio still above 3:1 Bulls, at 58 to 17. Commercial gold sellers have finally backed off, as have insider sellers and even margin debt, despite low interest rates.

Here are the numbers (with the latest monthly ETF amounts for April:

Date> 5/30/2014 5/23/2014
Indices: DJIA  16717 16606
  NAZ  4242 4185
SPX  1923 1900
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 7.0/2.7* 8.4/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.59 2.8
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  54 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.4 11.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2118/1091 2107/1115
Weekly Net: 1027 992
     Cumulative: 162040 161013
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 425/62 290/78
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 182/83 111/156
McClellan  Oscillator 24 15
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 855 747
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 58.3 57.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.3 18.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 36.5 30.3
Bear  23.2 26.4
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 10k/2k 8k/8k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (79k) (106K)
CEOinsider selling 25:1 17::1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:35 160:20
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B 3.3B (3.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  437B APR.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1056/412/263 APR.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.38% 0.35%

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