Monday, June 30, 2014


According to Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders, since 1962 there has been a CORRECTION of at least 9% in every mid-term election year, such as the present one. So far into 2014, now half way through, the largest was the immediate 5.7% in early February, and ending the semi-annual period up 6.3% YTD.
June was to be the worst month based on years going back to 1945, with May, August and September close behind.

So far this year the Sentiment numbers. like the VIX, tend to make one's eyes glass over- last week was no exception. May's totals for ETFs continue to grow to record highs (see below), and the monthly margin debt drop again, although still high, with zero interest rates. Both sets of Insider trading (legal) remain high, but differed when looked at by Sectors (52 to 1 sellers), or individuals ( officers and 10% stakeholders).   Also high once more - Commercial sellers of Gold, perhaps quarter-ending action.

Breadth (advance/decline and new highs/lows) remain strong - the latter 10 to 1- Wire House Bulls stay above 60% and Bears in the low 20s. Here are the numbers:

Date> 6/27/2014 6/20/2014
Indices: DJIA  16851 16947
  NAZ  4397 4368
SPX  1960 1962
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 9.5/3.9 9.6/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.44 2.29
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  53 47
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.3 10.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1817/1414 2243/973
Weekly Net: 403 1270
     Cumulative: 164063 163660
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 556/66 574/51
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 224/98 278/90
McClellan  Oscillator 13 16
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1000 983
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 60.2 61.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 16.3 16.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 37.2 35.2
Bear  21.1 24.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k       .6/6 12/(11)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (131k) (75k)
CEOinsider selling 52:1 17:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:20 175:35
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 84
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B 5B (31B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  428B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1069/428/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.46% 0.46%

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