Monday, April 7, 2014

Weak Week

There is a basic Technical rule that historically !!! the last day and the first four days of the month are positive for the market, as people get paid, especially around Income tax time. This was true...until Friday. Weekly Sentiment Indicators looked fairly benign for the week - surveys take place Tues. and Wed.- although the relative extremes were still high - Insider Selling (Board,Officers) since December; margin interest a new record, although low rates and the Fed Put option help this ongoing fact.

High on the radar is the Presidential four-year cycle, with 2014 being the mid-election year, where markets have dipped a minimum of 9% without fail for several decades. Barron's had an article that especially May and (even worse) June proved the "Sell in May" adage. The past two days seem to verify players coming in early, like HFTs!

Although weekly breadth (hurt by Friday) remained strong, low VIX and high Nas Volume warned.

Here are the numbers (more at:

Date> 4/4/2014 3/28/2014
Indices: DJIA  16412 16323
  NAZ  4127 4155
SPX  1865 1857
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 10.9/3.6 11.4/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 3.03 3.17
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  56 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.9 14.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2130/1063 1485/1713
Weekly Net: 1067 -228
     Cumulative: 158380 157313
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 389/30 213/64
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 258/103 161/110
McClellan  Oscillator -10 -10
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 837 768
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50.5 54.7
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 18.6 17.5
AAII  -Bull :wed. 35.4 31.2
Bear  26.8 28.6
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 9k/21k 7k/24k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (114k) (127k)
CEOinsider selling 34:1 25:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 175:30 200:40
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 72
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (13.2B) (3.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  FEB. 466B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B FEB. 1035/397/266
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.42% 0.45%

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