Monday, October 21, 2013


Once again the Hallowe'en specter of JASON is almost past us: J-une through N-ovember! Historically this is the worse semi-annual cycle by far, compared to its complementary cycle. This year, despite the Walls of Worry we've been through, it wasn't that bad. The markets basically ignored the Divine Comedy of our government histrionics.

Now we seem to be in the sweet spot - the "Taper" has been put off by the postponements, and we enter the best months - Nov.- Jan. Speaking of cycles, one of the most reliable since WWII has been the 4- year Presidential, or Kinchen cycle - e.g. 2014, where there has always been a severe selloff (except for 1986, which was delayed until 1987 !!!). This is also an Election year.

Sentiment extremes this week include the massive outflows from MMFs - $52B, much into equity funds. "Legal" Insider Selling still remains high, versus Buying; and the McClellan Oscillator is now overbought at +62 with a 10:1 New Hi/Lo ratio on the NAS. Both the VIX and CBOE put/call ratios dropped into neutral.

Here are the numbers:

10/18/2013 10/11/2013
Indices: DJIA  15400 15237
  NAZ  3914 3791

SPX  1744 1703
WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.8/3.7 9.3/3.4
NASD/NYSE   2.38  
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  54 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13 15.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2539/642 1784/1393
Weekly Net:
1897 391
     Cumulative: 153465 151568
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 581/125 260/168
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 576/59 278/88
McClellan  Oscillator 62 11
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 257 123
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 42.3 45.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 21.6 20.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 46.3 41.3

Bear  24.9 25.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k gov't 11/14
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 shutdown -72
CEOinsider selling 38:1 42:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  80 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (5.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (52B) (19.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.32% 0.36%

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