J A S O N

Once again the Hallowe'en specter of JASON is almost past us: J-une through N-ovember! Historically this is the worse semi-annual cycle by far, compared to its complementary cycle. This year, despite the Walls of Worry we've been through, it wasn't that bad. The markets basically ignored the Divine Comedy of our government histrionics.

Now we seem to be in the sweet spot - the "Taper" has been put off by the postponements, and we enter the best months - Nov.- Jan. Speaking of cycles, one of the most reliable since WWII has been the 4- year Presidential, or Kinchen cycle - e.g. 2014, where there has always been a severe selloff (except for 1986, which was delayed until 1987 !!!). This is also an Election year.

Sentiment extremes this week include the massive outflows from MMFs - $52B, much into equity funds. "Legal" Insider Selling still remains high, versus Buying; and the McClellan Oscillator is now overbought at +62 with a 10:1 New Hi/Lo ratio on the NAS. Both the VIX and CBOE put/call ratios dropped into neutral.

Here are the numbers:

 

Date>		10/18/2013	10/11/2013
Indices:	DJIA	15400	15237
	NAZ	3914	3791
	SPX	1744	1703
WklyVolume (Bshs).		8.8/3.7	9.3/3.4
NASD/NYSE		2.38
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish			2.74
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	54	65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13	15.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2539/642	1784/1393
Weekly Net:		1897	391
Cumulative:		153465	151568
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	581/125	260/168
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	576/59	278/88
McClellan	Oscillator	62	11
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	257	123
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	42.3	45.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	21.6	20.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	46.3	41.3
	Bear	24.9	25.1
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	gov't	11/14
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	shutdown	-72
CEOinsider	selling	38:1	42:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	80	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(5.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(52B)	(19.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.32%	0.36%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

J A S O N