Monday, March 4, 2013


Despite many Sentiment Indicators near dangerous highs, the markets seem bouyant as everyone - from Fundamentalist Warren Buffett to Technician Ralph Acampora ( who recently resurfaced) is wildly Bullish on stocks. Unanimity is usually wrong, and, as any technician will tell you, the only sure thing about an "average" is that the current momentum won't follow exactly the average - unless it's a "moving" one. Even the January Barometer predicts an up market when January is both UP and UP over 5% - at least until the Fall months, when it declines somewhat.

 Last week the notable increases were: CBOE put/call ratio to 70 (Bullish), AAII Bears a few percentage points while the Bulls dropped from 42% to 28%!  Another major move was MM funds switching from a negative $23B to a positive inflow of almost $6B.

Here are the numbers:

3/1/2013 2/22/2013
Indices: DJIA  14089 14000
  NAZ  3169 3161

SPX  1518 1515
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   9.2/4.0 7.4/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.30 2.47

Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  70 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.4 14.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1667/1492 1386/1767
Weekly Net:
175 -381
     Cumulative: 147505 147330
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 447/110 576/82
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 297/88 405/74
McClellan  Oscillator -3 -18
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 873 966
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 46.3 48.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 21.1 22.1

AAII  -Bull :wed. 28.4 41.8

Bear  36.6 32.5
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 10/4 17/19
CEOinsider selling 29:1 58:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  79 81
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 1B
MMF flows Change in $B 5.77B (23.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  330B Dec.
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 764/329/243 Dec.
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.24% 0.26%

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